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Dateline: Middle East
Volume 25 • Winter 2008
Published by The Student Coalition for a Just Peace in the Middle East

ISRAEL’S ELECTIONS
Ilan Ishai

In the lead-up to February 10’s national elections, and after Israel’s three-week military operation against Hamas in Gaza, the Israeli electorate seems to be decidedly right-of centre. The various political parties have adapted accordingly. Benjamin Netanyahu, chairman of the right-wing Likud party, was ahead in the polls prior to the Gaza operation. Netanyahu’s comfortable lead diminished somewhat throughout the operation as a result of the tough action taken by the Kadima and Labour coalition government. However, recent polls indicate that Israeli citizens still generally favour Netanyahu’s stance. The Likud Party has portrayed the Gaza operation as a lost opportunity which should have continued until the IDF broke Hamas’ control of the Gaza Strip.

In response to their decline in the polls, Livni and Barak have made increasingly bold remarks in an attempt to appear more hawkish. With less than a week to go before the elections, Livni rejected the possibility of establishing diplomatic contact with Hamas, and told Jerusalem Radio that “if by ending the operation we have yet to achieve deterrence we will continue until they get the message.” Barak was similarly quoted in Ha’aretz that “if [Hamas] try us again, they will be hit again.” Their parties’ political posturing has also been to little avail. Yet, the latest polls indicate that the Likud will be asked to form the next government Evidently, the more hawkish approach recently taken by the other parties is still no match for Netanyahu’s reputation and
tough talk regarding threats such as Hamas and Iran.

Not surprisingly, given the political climate and the Israeli public’s desire to deal forcefully with those seeking Israel’s destruction, Avigdor Lieberman’s right-wing party, Yisrael Beiteinu, has benefited from the Gaza operation. Lieberman’s main slogan this election has been “No citizenship without loyalty,” and the widespread condemnation of the conflict in Gaza by Israeli Arabs awakened fears of a potential fifth column, furthering
Yisrael Beiteinu’s cause. In some recent polls, Lieberman’s party has even come in third, ahead of Labour.

Netanyahu has expressed interest in bringing both Lieberman and Barak into his government. The decision to include Labour is likely a tactical move to enhance the international image of an otherwise hard-line coalition and to also give Netanyahu a degree of flexibility in the Cabinet to deal with peacemaking initiatives.
However, while the latest Ha’aretz-Dialogue poll predicts that the right-wing bloc will win 65 seats in the upcoming Knesset elections, a 12-seat advantage over the left—not taking into account the possibility of Labour joining a Netanyahu-led coalition — there is still a large number of undecided voters. With nearly 25
percent of voters undecided less than a week before the election, a surprise or two is not out of the question. [Editor: In fact, Kadima won 28 seats, Likud, 27, and Avigdor Liebermans’s Yisrael Beiteinu came in third at 15 seats, with Labor garnering only 13. President Peres has asked Likud's Netanyahu to form the next
government.]

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